One more low, then wave (5)?

The plan

Earnings season keeps rolling, and this week the AI-infrastructure trade is front and center. Constellation Energy (CEG) reports Monday morning. CoreWeave (CRWV) reports Tuesday after the close, and Nebius (NBIS) follows Thursday before the open. Cisco (CSCO) and Applied Materials (AMAT) close out the heavy hitters Thursday after the bell. Power, compute, networking and chip equipment all report in the same four days.

The two neoclouds are the ones we’re watching. Thursday’s selloff hit AI names hardest (Anchorage Daily News), and both stocks have been cut roughly in half since their summer highs. Both charts are in the same spot: the last leg of a (c) wave, sitting on its first target going into earnings. CRWV goes first, so its reaction Tuesday night sets the tone for NBIS on Thursday morning.

CoreWeave (CRWV): Tuesday after the close

CRWV 1D log · TradingView · Nov 8, 3:34 pm CT

Consensus is about $3.54B in revenue and a loss of $1.17 per share. Options are pricing roughly an 18% move, which brackets about $38 to $55 off Friday’s $46.40 close. History says take that seriously: three of the last four prints sent the stock 11% to 19% lower the next day, and last quarter it ripped 19% higher.

On a log scale, we count the run from the 2025 IPO into the June 2025 high as wave (1). Everything since is a wave (2) correction in three legs. (a) bottomed near $64 in late 2025. (b) rallied back toward $138 in May. (c) has been grinding lower in five waves since: (1) into the July low, (2) into the August bounce, (3) into late October, and (4) back up to $64.39 on Oct 29. That bounce stalled right under the old $64 shelf.

Wave (5) of (c) is the leg in progress. Thursday’s low of $40.58 is already under the 100% target near $47. We’ve marked the stretch from there down to the mid-$30s as the buy zone, with the 127.2% extension near $35 as the deeper target. The low end of the implied move, around $38, sits inside that zone. Our Fibonacci time projection (the 1.272 line) points to mid-December for the wave (2) low, so this can take a few more weeks.

Invalidation: a break below the IPO-era lows near $33 kills the wave (2) count. If we lose that level, we stop calling it a buy zone.

Nebius (NBIS): Thursday before the open

NBIS 1D · TradingView · Nov 8, 3:20 pm CT

NBIS reports Q3 Thursday before the open, with the call at 7:00 am CT. Consensus sits near $907M in revenue and a loss of $0.61 per share. Options are pricing roughly a 16% move, and last quarter the stock ran 34% the day after the print.

Our read is that the whole decline from the June high is an (a)-(b)-(c) correction, not the start of a bear market. Wave (a) ran five waves down into late July. Wave (b) retraced most of it into mid-August without making a new high. Since then, (c) has been working lower in five waves of its own: i into early September, ii back up toward $255, iii into the late-October low, and iv up to $182.74 on Oct 28.

Wave v is the leg we’re in now. Thursday’s flush to $113.30 put price right on the 100% line, where (c) equals (a). It also pushed price back inside the old October-to-April base. NBIS bounced 7.58% Friday to close at $129.49.

That leaves two clean targets for (c):

• 100% (c)=(a), near $127. Price is already testing it. If Thursday’s low holds through earnings, v may already be complete.
• 123.6% extension, near $90. If we see one more flush, this is the zone. It sits in the lower half of the base, near the heaviest volume shelf on the profile. The green path on the chart shows a dip under the base midline (around $108) before the reversal.

The implied move brackets about $108 to $151 off Friday’s close. The bottom of that range lines up with the base midline, so a bad reaction can reach our lower targets in a single session.

Once (c) finishes, the first thing we want to see is a reclaim of $182.74, the wave iv high. That would confirm the five-wave decline is done. After that, the green path points back to the $195 area, where wave i of (c) ended. Daily RSI is already sitting near the 30 line, which is what you’d expect late in a fifth wave.

Invalidation: the bullish reading needs the old base to do its job. A decisive break below the 123.6% target and out the bottom of the base, toward the 52-week low near $73.50, would mean this is more than an (a)-(b)-(c). At that point we stand aside and re-count.

Watching

Both names are oversold, both are sitting at measured targets, and both report within 36 hours of each other. If CRWV holds its buy zone after Tuesday’s print, that’s a good sign for the NBIS setup Thursday. If CRWV breaks below $33, we expect the pressure to spill over into NBIS too.

We’ll update Wednesday morning after CRWV, Thursday after NBIS, and again after CSCO and AMAT. Prices are as of the Nov 6 close; earnings dates, consensus and implied moves are from Perplexity Finance market data.